The consumer basket is one of basic concepts economy. In Russia, it is of no small importance for calculating the minimum wage and other social benefits. Compound consumer basket and its cost in the country are regularly updated and changed taking into account certain realities. Today, for example, many are interested in what the consumer basket will be in 2016.
How the consumer basket is formed
A consumer basket is a kind of abstract set that includes not only goods, but also services. Based on it, the minimum consumer budget is calculated. It is often used as a basis for determining purchasing power.
This concept exists in all leading economies of the world. And when compared with civilized European countries and America, in Russia the value of the consumer basket is significantly lower. So, for example, in the States it includes about 300 goods and services, in England – 350, in Germany – 475, and in Russia – 156.
Every few years, the items included in the basket and its value are reviewed and a new option is developed that better suits the current needs of consumers. It is assumed that the basket includes those goods and services that allow a person to live comfortably for one year (calculations are carried out exactly for a year). However, if we look at the composition of the consumer basket in more detail, we can understand that most of the figures are simply underestimated and do not reflect modern realities at all. Therefore, the reasoning that the 2016 consumer basket in Russia should be modernized is not based on empty space.
Eat different types consumer basket, which are calculated according to the category of citizens for which they are intended. For example, they allocate a basket for children, pensioners and working citizens. And for each of them, special groups of goods are calculated according to the needs of the group.
What will be included in the consumer basket in 2016
The composition of the consumer basket for 2016 is something that interests many. After all, the overall standard of living directly depends on what is put into it at the official level.
Naturally, food takes up most of the list. Food products are the main part of the consumer basket, because... a person cannot live without food. By comparison, in Western countries food takes up only a quarter of the basket. This discrepancy can be explained quite simply: in the West, the basket is richer, and not as much money from the budgets of each family in Russia is spent on food.
The basket also includes clothing and household items, shoes and medicines. The third conditional group involves services of various kinds. If we look at it in detail, these are, of course, utility bills and transport payments. At the same time, despite the rather modest financial inclusions in the consumer basket, it includes expenses for visiting cultural events.
If we translate everything into hard and more understandable numbers, we get the following picture. The Government allocated for a year for an adult:
- a ton of potatoes;
- almost 115 kg of vegetables;
- 60 kg of fruit;
- about 127 kg of bread and flour products;
- 59 kg of meat;
- 18 kg of fish.
When recalculating such data into daily norms, one can understand that per day an adult working person is allowed to eat 300 g of bread, 280 g of potatoes, 800 g of milk and other products made from it, 50 g of fish, 160 g of meat. It is no coincidence that many consider such figures to be simply mocking, because they do not withstand any special criticism.
What is the value of the consumer basket in 2016?
Against the background of determining the composition of the basket, its cost is also interesting. According to analysts, the cost of the consumer basket in 2016 averaged about 10,000 rubles. But again, everything depends on the region where the payments are made, as well as on the stores in which people buy this very set of products. For example, if these are purchases in economy stores, the cost of a consumer basket can be about 5,000 rubles.
How does such a basket increase in value?
The 2016 consumer basket in Russia, the latest news on which many are eagerly awaiting, should, in theory, increase and change. Analysts attribute this to a sharp change in the situation in the country, when the incomes of many have dropped significantly. However, if we rely on the practice of recent years, it is worth understanding that there is nothing special for the basket to increase or improve qualitatively.
It had previously risen in price insignificantly, adding 3-4 percent (which is less than the official inflation rate), but today it has fallen hopelessly behind. After all, the sharp rise in price levels, the decline in Russians’ incomes, and the general debt load of the country’s residents have made such baskets literally empty. It is simply impossible to feed yourself and feed your family based on such parameters.
The changes in 2015, which are already planned and are being carried out, will also have their mark on its composition and cost. For example, in 2015, as experts note, the consumer basket became healthier. The content of baked goods was reduced, the consumption of meat and fish was reduced, and more fruits, vegetables and herbs were added. For the most part, only the grocery part of the basket was changed, leaving the other two unchanged.
To determine the minimum required amount of money on which a certain person or family can live for a month, the concept of a consumer basket was introduced. It is also used to compare real and estimated levels of purchase of certain goods, to calculate and determine each of the currencies.
Legislative regulation
Before identifying the baskets, it is necessary to find out its composition. It is the number of products included in it and their prices that will determine how much money everyone needs to spend on living expenses. The contents of this basket are approved by the relevant federal law from 2012 for three main groups of people, children and pensioners.
The food basket for Russian citizens consists of 11 items. It is separately stated that the cost of non-food products is set at 50% of the cost of food, the same percentage is determined for services. But in previous legislative acts the necessary standards for paying for services, purchasing clothing and basic necessities were calculated.
Minimum set of products
At the federal level, the minimum number of products that should be consumed by different categories of the population per year was determined. Thus, the law establishes such standards for children, pensioners and the working population.
Pensioners | Working population |
|||
Bread (including cereals, pasta, beans, bread in terms of flour) | ||||
vegetables and melons | ||||
potato | ||||
fresh fruits | ||||
sugar and confectionery products (converted to sugar) | ||||
fish products | ||||
meat products | ||||
dairy products (converted to milk) | ||||
fats, including vegetable oil and margarine | ||||
other products (spices, tea, salt, etc.) |
The annual nutritional set for every resident of Russia looks exactly like this. The monthly grocery basket looks the same. Its composition is no different, just the number of products from each category can be divided by 12, and you will find out how much meat or bread you should eat within 30 days. By the way, if you think that the tables give too large and unrealistic numbers, then to determine the average daily norm, simply divide each of the indicators by 365. This way you will find out that an adult can eat about 275 grams of potatoes, 300 of other vegetables and a little more than half an egg. The daily intake of meat is 160, and fish - 50 grams. True, in individual regions the set of its components may differ.
How is the composition of the basket determined?
Looking at what the food basket includes, many are perplexed. They are interested in what legislators are basing their decisions on when they allocate, for example, 88 kg of potatoes for a child and 80 kg of potatoes for a pensioner. To understand this, you need to understand how it is compiled. First of all, keep in mind that it must be updated at the legislative level at least once every 5 years.
When updating the basket, its biological and, of course, nutritional value is taken into account. It is believed that everyone new set products should be better and healthier than the previous one. That is why at the legislative level it includes large quantity meat, milk, fish products and eggs, fruits and various vegetables. But the share of potatoes, bread products, and fats is gradually decreasing.
The food basket also takes into account the content of fats, carbohydrates and proteins, and the amount of kcal in it is also determined. These indicators must comply with the standards established for each category of the population.
Why is a consumer basket needed?
In many countries, it is customary to determine the minimum set of products and goods that are necessary for living. Based on its cost, the minimum estimated amount on which a person can live is calculated. Certainly, set set It is more of a theoretical nature, because it is not enough for a full life. The cost of living and the consumer basket are two interrelated concepts, because the first indicator is determined based on the cost of the second.
Exactly living wage is taken as the basis for calculating various social additional payments, determining the amount of benefits and other payments. Based on the cost of the consumer basket, it is easy to determine the level of inflation; it is enough to calculate how much it has grown over the billing period.
Is it possible to live on the estimated amount?
Seeing the composition and cost of the food package, the allocated amount for services and other things, many are interested in whether it is realistic to survive for a month on such rations. If you decide to do such an experiment, then keep in mind that you will have to give up many habits. For example, the food basket does not include alcohol. With the allocated amount, you are unlikely to be able to purchase overseas fruits; you will have to be content with the cheapest apples, although in winter they will become something unattainable.
The cost of living does not count on the fact that you want to develop culturally, so going to the cinema, museums or theaters is also prohibited. Please note that you need to pay for utilities, set aside a certain amount for global purchases (and this includes the purchase of outerwear and shoes).
Thus, the calculated cost of the consumer basket for 2014 is 6,300 rubles for an adult, 6,400 for a child, 5,400 for a pensioner.
A certain composition of goods and services, which in a minimum set provides a person with a normal existence throughout the year and satisfies needs, is defined as a “consumer basket”. We suggest you find out whether the cost will change and composition of the consumer basket for 2016.
Main characteristics of the concept
In essence, this term means more than just a minimum consumer list. Many other economic indicators depend on this economic characteristic - the cost of living has a direct relationship, and the minimum wage and some social benefits are already calculated on it.
The composition of the basket changes once every five years. Other indicators that depend on the consumer basket change, of course, more often. This is due to the constant change in the cost of basic food and non-food products, as well as services that are included in the consumer basket.
The last change in the composition of the consumer list occurred two years ago. From the first days of 2013 to the present, a certain composition of it has been in effect. The next change is expected in 2018.
Composition of the consumer basket 2016
Let's see what the consumer basket will consist of in 2016.
Almost half of this list is occupied by food products. By the way, food products account for only 20 percent of the consumer baskets in developed countries. But this is not surprising - an ordinary Russian family actually spends 50% of its income on catering.
The second product group includes clothing, linen, shoes, and medicines.
The third group contains payment costs utilities, necessary transportation expenses and visiting cultural and art events.
In terms of specific types of services, goods and products, next year’s annual basket, as now, will look like this (for an able-bodied person):
- 100 kg 400 grams potatoes
- 114 kg 600 gr. vegetables
- 60 kg of fruit
- 126 kg 500 gr. bread and flour products
- 58 kg 600 gr. meat
- 18 kg 500 gr. fish
If we review the weight characteristics and recalculate their daily norm, it turns out that the daily norm of human nutrition in Russia is:
- Bread – 0.3 kg
- Potatoes – 0.28 kg
- Share of fresh fruit – 0.16 kg
- Share of confectionery products and sugars – 0.06 kg
- The norm of milk and its derivatives is 0.8 kg
- The share of vegetable and animal oils and fats is 0.04 kg
- Egg – 0.5 pcs.
- Meat – 0.16 kg
- Fish – 0.05 kg
Cost of basic consumer goods
What is the cost of the consumer basket in 2016? Since 2013, the approach to calculating the cost of this list has changed somewhat. To determine its full cost, the average price for the entire minimum set of food products is taken and multiplied by two.
It is clear that the final result will be different for each region of the country - the pricing policy of food groups is different between territories. The most “expensive” food baskets are traditionally located in the northern regions of Russia and in central megacities – the capital, St. Petersburg.
And even within the same territory the situation can be ambiguous. For example, if we track the pricing policy of large retail chains in Moscow, we will get a completely different picture of the cost of a minimum grocery set. According to the monitoring results, the cost of a set in economy class networks is 4,800 rubles. (in Pyaterochka stores). The same set of products in premium chains costs over 10.0 thousand rubles (Azbuka Vkusa stores).
It turns out that for those Muscovites who shop at Pyaterochka, the cost of the consumer basket for a month is 9.6 thousand rubles, and for those who shop at more expensive stores, the basket exceeds 20.0 thousand rubles.
Despite the difference in living standards, the cost of living remains the same for everyone and is equal to the minimum size of the consumer basket - 9.9 thousand rubles.
On average in Russia, over the past year the cost of this basic set increased by 4.2%. – even less than the inflation rate. If we translate the percentages into population categories, we find that the basket of a working Russian has risen in price by 200 rubles, the children's basket has become “heavier” by 150 rubles, and the most significant increase in the price of consumer demand has occurred among pensioners - by more than 400 rubles.
Most likely, 2015 will also make significant adjustments to the change in the cost of the set. Prices have increased for both food and household goods. A slight increase in service tariffs is expected, which will result in an increase in utility bills.
Will the 2016 consumer basket change in Russia? The latest news so far only refers to the composition of 2013. Most likely, the consumer basket set will not be revised in the coming year. Although, for example, in our closest neighbors - the republics of Kazakhstan and Belarus - the basket in 2016 will be revised taking into account modern requirements and the needs of the citizen.
Let's wait and hope that the 2016 consumer basket in Russia will actually meet the expectations of Russians.
Approximately once every five-year period, the Commission for the Regulation of Social Relations in the Russian Federation determines a new consumer basket - Last update occurred on January 1, 2013, so the 2016 consumer basket will not be radically different compared to previous years. What will the official consumer basket of 2016 include?
What is meant by the term?
Before analyzing the composition of the basket for the coming year, you should understand the terminology - what does the Government even call the consumer basket?
This term refers to a certain set of goods that allows a citizen of a state to exist comfortably, satisfying basic needs (that is, without feeling hunger or thirst). This is the set of goods - the foundation on which the cost of living rests. The set of necessary goods is divided into 3 groups:
- Food Formally they have a share of 50%, however, in reality, many families in Russia spend much more than half of their budget on food. By the way, in Western European countries no more than 20% is allocated to food, and this does not mean that Europeans have to eat worse.
- Non-food products– this group includes shoes, clothing, medicines.
- Services. This group of necessary goods is the smallest in Russia. Services include expenses for transportation, utility bills, and visiting cultural events. According to statistics, only about 5% of money is spent on visiting galleries, exhibitions, and cinema.
What should a Russian eat?
In 2016, the Russian Government allocated for an adult (we are considering the daily norm):
- Potatoes – 280 grams.
- Bread – 300 grams.
- Milk (and other milk products) – 80 grams.
- Meat – 160 grams.
- Fish – 50 grams.
- Vegetable oil – 40 grams.
- Fresh fruits and herbs – 160 grams.
- Fresh vegetables – 300 grams.
- Sweets and spices – 60 grams.
- Chicken egg - half.
Compared to last year, the consumer basket for 2016 has become healthier - consumption standards for potatoes and bread products have fallen, but in response, standards for fresh vegetables, fish and meat have increased. However, in general, the basket remained as mockingly poor as it was before. It is worth noting that the cost of the basket differs slightly in different regions - products are most expensive in large cities and northern regions. Purchasing the described food products in Moscow or St. Petersburg in an economy class supermarket (like Pyaterochka) costs 4800-5000 rubles per month, in middle class stores (Azbuka Vkusa) - 10-12 thousand rubles. Based on these calculations, the cost of living should be from 10 to 20 thousand rubles, however, for all residents of Russia it is the same - 9.9 thousand rubles.
The breakdown of the food portion by social strata is interesting - on average, the food portion increased by 4.2% compared to 2015. If you break this figure down into layers, you get an increase for:
- Children – by 4.1%.
- Pensioners - by more than 8% (!) (in fairness, it must be said: this only applies to unemployed pensioners).
- Working citizens – by 3.2%.
That is, the largest share of the population will feel the least difference, because they will be forced to feed children and the elderly.
The changes affected only food products. As for cultural development, an able-bodied member of society still has the opportunity to visit a gallery or theater once a month - for two times you will have to save on food.
What's behind the hill?
A comparative description of the consumer baskets of developed countries in Western Europe, the United States and the countries of East Asia (developing countries should not be taken - why a bad example?) turns out to be definitely not in favor of Russia. Even in terms of the number of goods included in the PC, Russia lags significantly behind: in Britain there are 350 goods in the basket, in Germany – as many as 475, and in Russia – 156. This suggests that Russians have to live much more monotonously than the Germans and to the British.
In addition, in Western countries there is no significant bias towards food - Europeans can afford to buy fashionable clothes and constantly go to see the latest film releases. The consumer basket in France is 650 euros - converting into rubles (we assume an approximate conversion rate of 1/85), we get more than 55 thousand rubles. Even with the difference in product prices, this is a huge amount for a PC. A reasonable question arises: what do the French do so much better than the Russians?
How adequate is the consumer basket in the Russian Federation: opinions and experiments
Former Minister of Health T. Golikova stated that the composition of the consumer basket should be adjusted radically, and this is completely clear to both members of the Government and ordinary citizens without any additional research. This should have been done several years ago, even before the crisis. However, the body of work is huge - no one wants to take on this matter, much less bear responsibility for the results. The 2016 consumer basket should be closer to healthy eating standards, and not to the minimum necessary for survival - the biological value of the food part of the current basket is at a very low level.
Well-known entrepreneur Zurab Musinyan supported his (similar) opinion with the results of a study conducted as part of the “I am a consumer” program. According to the experiment, several Muscovites went to supermarkets and bought only food from the PC. The results were unpleasantly surprising: the real amount was almost twice as high as that announced by the Government.
Musinyan notes that 10% of Russian citizens (this number of Russians have incomes that do not exceed the subsistence level) are forced to simply survive.
Considering that a significant PC change occurs every five years, a better life will have to wait until 2018. And the consumer basket in Russia for 2016 has already been determined and is unlikely to bring great joy to anyone.
The minimum food basket is the most expensive in the village of Baikalovo, Sverdlovsk region, the cheapest is in Naberezhnye Chelny. This conclusion can be made by studying Magnit prices in 1,273 localities across the country.
Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina / RBC
What and how they counted
The calculations of the Magnit basket are based on Rosstat’s “List of goods included in the conditional (minimum) set of food products.” The list contains 33 items; analysts excluded one from it - lamb, which is not available in every store (the list is given at the end of the article). Analysts clarified some of the positions: for example, the Rosstat list shows simply margarine, but to calculate the Magnit basket, margarine with a fat content of 40% is used.
The basket is calculated for 1273 settlements where Magnit stores are located and where all selected items are presented. For calculations, products that fully correspond to the description, or, in their absence, those closest to it, are used. The minimum price for each product is taken. The mass of the product, which Rosstat lists in a conditional calculation for a year, is divided into 12 months. For example, Rosstat accepts millet consumption as 6 kg per year, which means that the cost of 500 g is used for monthly calculations.
What does the price depend on?
If we group prices by region, calculating the arithmetic average for all their accessible points, the most expensive (a basket costs more than 3,000 rubles) will be the Tyumen region and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug. “Pricing is influenced, on the one hand, by the higher level of income of the population in oil regions,” explains Raiffeisenbank senior analyst Natalya Kolupaeva. “On the other hand, there is a higher cost of logistics to remote cities.”
Moscow was not included in the top 10 most expensive regions, but St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region were included. This is explained, in particular, by the lower level of competition between suppliers, says Mikhail Burmistrov, general director of the INFOLine-Analytics company: “In St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the number of local suppliers of the main categories of products - vegetables, bakery products, milk, is very limited, so their wholesale prices are significantly higher than in the capital."
The cheapest - below 2500 rubles. — a food basket could be purchased in ten regions of Russia in March. These are mainly regions with low incomes: Saratov, Penza, Volgograd regions, the Republic of Chuvashia, Udmurtia and others. Also, a lower cost of the basket is observed in regions with developed agriculture: for example, the Republic of Tatarstan took third place in the ranking of the cheapest, notes Burmistrov.
The price of a basket often differs sharply in different localities of the same region. For example, the leader in cost is the village of Baikalovo in the Sverdlovsk region (3,181 rubles), and the city of Revda in the same Sverdlovsk region took only 1,138th place (2,529 rubles). Sometimes the variation is explained by logistics, sometimes by competition. “Magnit operates in many small towns, and if the retailer has to compete only with conventional tents on wheels, he does not have to give big discounts,” explains Kolupaeva from Raiffeisenbank. In the opposite situation, with high competition, Magnit often tries to make its minimum product basket cheaper. In addition, each store has a turnover target, which also affects the price level, adds Burmistrov: “In order for a store to fulfill the turnover plan, prices for certain goods may decrease or increase depending on the situation.”
Why is the basket getting cheaper?
In May 2015, from which Gradoteka began collecting Magnit data, the average cost of the consumer basket was 3,019 rubles, and in March 2016 - 2,749 rubles, that is, the basket fell in price by almost 10% in ten months. Despite the fact that inflation in March 2016 compared to March 2015 was 7.3%.
Chains deliberately subsidize prices for some product categories to attract buyers, analysts explain: now many consumers shuttle between chains in search of best price, so it is important for retailers to have products with the best prices. Thus, in the latest study “Ivanov Consumer Index”, Sberbank CIB analysts indicated that now the average number of retail chains with middle-class Russians is 2.2. Due to marketing, inflation on the shelves of the largest Russian chains is significantly lower than the overall official food inflation, they noted. “People are looking for substitute products or products on sale, and as a result, prices have dropped within most product categories,” explains Kolupaeva.
What not to do with the shopping cart
The cost of the basket calculated at Magnit prices cannot be directly compared with the cost of the basket calculated by Rosstat. The differences between them do not end with lamb excluded from the list. At least two things should be noted: Magnitov’s basket is calculated by localities, and Rosstat’s is calculated by region, and Rosstat collects data not only from discounters, but also from premium retailers, and in general not only from retail chains. The cost of Rosstat's consumer basket at the end of March 2016 was 3,655 rubles, which is 1.3 times more than that of Magnit.
Finally, one should not draw hasty conclusions about the life of ordinary Russians from the cost and composition of the basket. Rosstat warns against this: “The given data on the weight (quantity) of goods are conditional and do not reflect their actual consumption by the population.”
Minimum grocery basket (32 products)
Vermicelli – 500 g
Beef (shoulder meat) - 1.25 kg
Peas and beans - 608 g
Fresh white cabbage – 2.92 kg
Caramel - 58.33 g
Fresh potatoes - 12.5 kg
Chilled and frozen chickens - 1.17 kg
Fresh onions - 1.67 kg
Margarine (40%) – 500 g
Refined deodorized sunflower oil – 583.33 g
Butter (72.5%) - 150 g
Pasteurized whole drinking milk (2.5-3.2%) - 9.17 l
Fresh carrots - 2.92 kg
Premium wheat flour - 1.67 kg
Fresh cucumbers – 150 g
Black pepper (peas) - 60.83 g
Cookies - 58.33 g
Millet – 500 g
Long grain polished rice - 416.67 g
Whole frozen fish – 1.17 kg
Granulated sugar - 1.67 kg
Pork (shoulder meat) - 333.33 g
Salted herring - 58.33 g
Sour cream (20%) – 150 g
Table salt – 304.17 g
Rennet cheeses, hard and soft (40-50%) - 208.33 g
Low-fat cottage cheese (1.8-2%) - 833.33 g
Bread and bakery products from wheat flour of 1st and 2nd grades - 6.25 kg
Bread made from rye flour and from a mixture of rye and wheat flour - 9.58 kg
Black tea - 41.67 g
Fresh apples – 1.55 kg
Table eggs (grade 1 and grade 2) - 15 pieces